As Donald Trump prepares for a potential return to the U.S. presidency, Africa’s diplomatic landscape could undergo significant changes. While the U.S. president-elect largely ignored Africa during his first term, offering only occasional inflammatory remarks, his second term may bring mixed outcomes for the continent.
Countries such as South Africa and Kenya are wary of diminished relations with the U.S. under a second Trump administration, fearing a continuation of the dismissive approach that characterized his first term. However, nations like Nigeria, Uganda, Morocco, and Egypt see the potential for stronger economic ties, including increased trade and arms deals, in the absence of what they perceive as U.S. lectures on human rights.
One of the most notable relationships is between Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Sisi, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory, has long courted the U.S. leader, who has praised Sisi’s authoritarian rule. Trump’s admiration for strongman politics is well-known; in 2019, he even referred to Sisi as his “favorite dictator.”
Under Trump, Egypt has strengthened its military ties with the U.S., importing billions in arms. But in recent years, Egypt has also diversified its sources of military equipment, including from Russia, Italy, and Germany. While the U.S. has scrutinized Egypt’s human rights record, particularly in light of allegations that Sisi attempted to influence U.S. elections, Trump’s administration largely overlooked these concerns in favor of strategic alliances.
Despite ongoing concerns about political repression, including the imprisonment of thousands of political prisoners, Egypt’s role as a key player in Middle Eastern diplomacy has helped it maintain strong U.S. support. Its mediation between Israel and Hamas has elevated its importance in U.S. foreign policy, ensuring continued military aid.
Under a second Trump administration, Egypt could expect even fewer constraints on its human rights abuses. Trump’s focus on the Abraham Accords and Middle Eastern peace may embolden Egypt to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa, where it backs Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan in regional disputes, particularly over the Ethiopian Tigray conflict. Egypt also faces growing economic challenges, particularly due to disruptions in the Red Sea shipping routes caused by conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, and is hoping Trump’s leadership style will help resolve these issues.
While some African nations may benefit from closer ties with the U.S. under Trump, others, like South Africa and Kenya, may find themselves sidelined or even at odds with U.S. policy if Trump returns to the White House. As the election approaches, Africa’s political and economic future hangs in the balance.
