Egypt is poised to become the largest wheat importer globally in the 2024-25 marketing year, surpassing countries like Indonesia and China with projected wheat purchases of 12.5 million metric tons (mt). This marks a 200,000 mt increase from the previous year and continues a three-year upward trend, driven by a growing demand from the country’s feed and food industries, as well as an influx of U.S. dollars facilitating imports.
The increase in wheat imports is largely due to Egypt’s reliance on wheat as a staple in its extensive bread industry, with geopolitical factors and domestic issues influencing demand. Russia remains a key supplier, delivering 4.7 million mt from July to November, but the market has seen slower imports recently due to abundant wheat stocks and tensions in neighboring countries like Sudan, Yemen, and Gaza. Despite this, traders remain optimistic that demand will pick up in December as stocks dwindle.
Egypt is also diversifying its corn sources, expecting imports to rise by 1-3% for the 2024-25 season, reaching 8.2 million mt. This increase comes as demand for animal feed grows and domestic corn production is projected to fall.
Local wheat prices in Egypt are currently low, but demand is expected to rise once stockpiles begin depleting. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), which is responsible for much of the country’s wheat imports, has already purchased significant amounts for the 2024-25 season and recently changed its procurement strategy by tendering for longer-term deliveries.
In a sign of Egypt’s growing importance in the global grain market, Russian exporters are now directed to supply wheat to Egypt without foreign intermediaries, while the country continues to engage in private negotiations to meet its import needs. Despite the current lull, traders predict that demand will ramp up again in the coming months as Egypt moves closer to its next harvest season in April.
