China’s aviation fuel consumption is projected to grow by 13.1% this year due to increased passenger travel, while crude oil imports may remain unchanged, according to a forecast by the research arm of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), reported by Reuters on Wednesday.
CNPC’s Economic and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) predicts that aviation fuel consumption will reach 39.3 million metric tonnes in 2024. They also anticipate a marginal 0.1% increase in crude oil imports, totaling 565 million metric tonnes or approximately 11.3 million barrels per day.
As international air travel demand rebounds post-COVID, experts expect a further rise in kerosene demand in 2024. However, international traffic remained at only 53% of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2023, according to LSEG data.
Wang Lining, leader of the oil markets research unit at ETRI, describes this period as one of rapid growth and recovery for kerosene consumption. He suggests that, due to the growth in per capita incomes and improvements in air transportation facilities, there is still potential for an increase in China’s kerosene demand.
ETRI predicts that China’s kerosene demand will reach 54 million tonnes by 2030, peaking in 2040. Meanwhile, diesel demand crucial for logistics and construction is expected to decrease by 2.8% in 2024 to 196 million metric tonnes.
On the other hand, CNPC foresees a 1.3% increase in gasoline consumption, reaching 165.1 million metric tonnes in 2024. Analysts predict that China’s gasoline demand may peak between 2024 and 2025 due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which are estimated to constitute 40% of the total 23 million auto sales this year.
